It has been more than a month since I pointed out that the Democratic Party is the proverbial frog in the slow boiling water, when all the Political Pundits and Media were rooting confidently of a Hillary Clinton win. Now that she has lost, they are out to tear up the Democrats, and offer bizarre solutions.
For a first, Politco led with a story that Bernie Sanders cronies are on a putsch to replace the Democratic leadership in at least, the States where Bernie won against Clinton in the Primaries. Now, it seems the Democratic Donors have huddled together to work our future, and Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and their hanger-on are egging for a more ‘Progressive’ political stance. We will see whether the data backs them up.
Second, is the chiding by President Obama yesterday that Hillary Clinton did not do as much ‘leg work’ as he himself did, and abandoning the Rust Belt states. In fact, he should address it to the Democratic Party in general, and not to HRC alone. The time wasted to tackle Bernie Sanders, and the later convention (than the Republicans), left her with no time to do that.
He also said that Democrats have to compete everywhere, even in Rust Belt states, which is the correct strategy – as I had written before regarding the Congress party defeat in May 2014. That the Congress party should forget about aping the US style of abandoning others strongholds, which is counterproductive in India. Even earlier, in the Bellweather states article, I had opined that a more aggressive push in Gujarat might have even stopped Narendra Modi. So it is not HRC’s fault that the Democrats are organized like that.
Third, is the hype around the internet that if it was Bernie Sanders instead of Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump would have lost. Which is patently untrue as we will see from the data, which is actually a bombshell.
The first thing to remember is Hillary Clinton beat Bernie Sanders fair and square in the Primaries – in both total votes polled, and in delegate count. To which an argument is being thrown about that even that was ‘rigged’ in her favour as revealed by Podesta emails. The actual fact is both the Democratic establishment, and President Obama allowed this Bernie Sanders circus to run on for so long. They should have stepped in long before to thump him, and stop him from wasting resources.
The second thing is, Hillary Clinton has won the popular vote in the US Election 2012, but lost out in Electoral College. As of this writing with Michigan still learning to count with their toes, the sum up of the popular votes (in millions) are:
2016 Hillary - 61.055
2012 Obama – 62.611
2008 Obama – 66.862
2004 Kerry – 56.249
and which is quite normal. The stark truth is Democratic vote share was shrinking, and continues to shrink. They would have been totally wiped out, if not for the 1st Black President hype of 2008 – and that bump as we can see was fading even in 2012.
On the other hand, since 2000, the Republican vote has been consistently close to 60 million (2000 and before, the vote was less than 50 million for each party).
2004 Bush – 59.729
2008 McCain – 58.319
2012 Romney – 59.134
2016 Trump – 60.627.
So, here is the quick tabulation of the states which were won by Bernie Sanders, and the total Democratic vote scored by Hillary Clinton. It just shows that none of the Bernie Sanders voters had deserted Hillary in the election, and at places, she has polled more than their combined Primary votes. Yeah, some of those states are Caucus so it is difficult to actually count the number of votes, but the broader picture is Bernie has run out of steam – that is all the vote he would be able to gather on his own.
link to view as GSheet: https://goo.gl/GXcVRQ
And look at the 6 states which Flipped Red in 2016. Even if Obama could have found a way to run for third time, and managed to get the same number of votes as 2012, Donald Trump would have outvoted him in 2016, in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. That is 67 Electoral College votes among them, and as Obama scored only 332 in 2012, without those 67, even he would have been in trouble.
Of course, that is assuming that the NY Times Data is correct, and Obama managed to poll exactly the same number of votes.
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For a first, Politco led with a story that Bernie Sanders cronies are on a putsch to replace the Democratic leadership in at least, the States where Bernie won against Clinton in the Primaries. Now, it seems the Democratic Donors have huddled together to work our future, and Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and their hanger-on are egging for a more ‘Progressive’ political stance. We will see whether the data backs them up.
Second, is the chiding by President Obama yesterday that Hillary Clinton did not do as much ‘leg work’ as he himself did, and abandoning the Rust Belt states. In fact, he should address it to the Democratic Party in general, and not to HRC alone. The time wasted to tackle Bernie Sanders, and the later convention (than the Republicans), left her with no time to do that.
He also said that Democrats have to compete everywhere, even in Rust Belt states, which is the correct strategy – as I had written before regarding the Congress party defeat in May 2014. That the Congress party should forget about aping the US style of abandoning others strongholds, which is counterproductive in India. Even earlier, in the Bellweather states article, I had opined that a more aggressive push in Gujarat might have even stopped Narendra Modi. So it is not HRC’s fault that the Democrats are organized like that.
Third, is the hype around the internet that if it was Bernie Sanders instead of Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump would have lost. Which is patently untrue as we will see from the data, which is actually a bombshell.
The first thing to remember is Hillary Clinton beat Bernie Sanders fair and square in the Primaries – in both total votes polled, and in delegate count. To which an argument is being thrown about that even that was ‘rigged’ in her favour as revealed by Podesta emails. The actual fact is both the Democratic establishment, and President Obama allowed this Bernie Sanders circus to run on for so long. They should have stepped in long before to thump him, and stop him from wasting resources.
The second thing is, Hillary Clinton has won the popular vote in the US Election 2012, but lost out in Electoral College. As of this writing with Michigan still learning to count with their toes, the sum up of the popular votes (in millions) are:
2016 Hillary - 61.055
2012 Obama – 62.611
2008 Obama – 66.862
2004 Kerry – 56.249
and which is quite normal. The stark truth is Democratic vote share was shrinking, and continues to shrink. They would have been totally wiped out, if not for the 1st Black President hype of 2008 – and that bump as we can see was fading even in 2012.
On the other hand, since 2000, the Republican vote has been consistently close to 60 million (2000 and before, the vote was less than 50 million for each party).
2004 Bush – 59.729
2008 McCain – 58.319
2012 Romney – 59.134
2016 Trump – 60.627.
So, here is the quick tabulation of the states which were won by Bernie Sanders, and the total Democratic vote scored by Hillary Clinton. It just shows that none of the Bernie Sanders voters had deserted Hillary in the election, and at places, she has polled more than their combined Primary votes. Yeah, some of those states are Caucus so it is difficult to actually count the number of votes, but the broader picture is Bernie has run out of steam – that is all the vote he would be able to gather on his own.
link to view as GSheet: https://goo.gl/GXcVRQ
And look at the 6 states which Flipped Red in 2016. Even if Obama could have found a way to run for third time, and managed to get the same number of votes as 2012, Donald Trump would have outvoted him in 2016, in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. That is 67 Electoral College votes among them, and as Obama scored only 332 in 2012, without those 67, even he would have been in trouble.
Of course, that is assuming that the NY Times Data is correct, and Obama managed to poll exactly the same number of votes.
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