Bihar 2015 would be an interesting election to watch - because the Nitish Kumar-Lalu Prasad Yadav-Congress while formidable on paper, does not appear to be so formidable in reality. OTOH, Modi's image is in tatters. The biggest plus of BJP in 2014 - a scam free government, is a joke now.
I have a feeling (just like my correct prediction that Jitan Ram Manjhi would resign without facing the Assembly) that it is neck and neck election fight in Bihar. And whichever party has the stamina, the will, and the hunger to win, will do so.
With that criteria, I would place my money (not that I am a betting man) on the BJP. They have all the 3, especially a very strong urge to dislodge Nitish Kumar and occupy CM's chair.
Nitish Kumar is actually on shaky ground, after resigning for poor show in 2014 General Elections, and then throwing a tantrum at Jitan Ram Manjhi – his own anointed successor. Moreover he has to constantly watch over his back at Lalu Prasad Yadav. The wily Lalu is playing a very shrewd waiting game, as he feels his bread is buttered on both sides.
If Nitish Kumar wins, Lalu can take his pound of flesh by once again tasting power in a coalition government. If Nitish loses, and does a ‘moral-responsibility-for-loss’ drama once again, à la 2014, Lalu will strike, and once he gets in, Lalu is no Manjhi to topple with ease.
As for the Congress, the party seems to have lost its will to fight. It seems to have adopted the US political strategy of not fighting in losing states, but concentrating on marginal or swing states. It happened in Gujarat Assembly elections and in TN during Gen. Elections. The Congress have simply given up the fight in those states.
More horribly, they have started to believe the US political strategy in its entirety. The Congress believes there are states dyed eternally 'Blue' and 'Red' like in the USA. They forget that in India, there are no more 'with you forever' states, either for the Congress, the BJP, or even the Communists (even the 7 sisters of North East are churning). This wrong assumption of a strong Blue state or orientation makes the Congress blunder their winning chances due to overconfidence - it happened in Punjab Assembly elections.
The political reality in India is that you fight everywhere, with full vigour, even where your party seems to be weak. In India such a show of presence acts as a catalyst, and creates a 'wave'. It happened with Narendra Modi in General Elections. Narendra Modi and Amit Shah are two politicians who have thoroughly understood this point, and hence their relentless membership drive, radio talk shows, digital dramas, et al.
Thus, I feel the BJP has a slight edge going into election day in Bihar.
(image courtesy newsmobile.in)
I have a feeling (just like my correct prediction that Jitan Ram Manjhi would resign without facing the Assembly) that it is neck and neck election fight in Bihar. And whichever party has the stamina, the will, and the hunger to win, will do so.
With that criteria, I would place my money (not that I am a betting man) on the BJP. They have all the 3, especially a very strong urge to dislodge Nitish Kumar and occupy CM's chair.
Nitish Kumar is actually on shaky ground, after resigning for poor show in 2014 General Elections, and then throwing a tantrum at Jitan Ram Manjhi – his own anointed successor. Moreover he has to constantly watch over his back at Lalu Prasad Yadav. The wily Lalu is playing a very shrewd waiting game, as he feels his bread is buttered on both sides.
If Nitish Kumar wins, Lalu can take his pound of flesh by once again tasting power in a coalition government. If Nitish loses, and does a ‘moral-responsibility-for-loss’ drama once again, à la 2014, Lalu will strike, and once he gets in, Lalu is no Manjhi to topple with ease.
As for the Congress, the party seems to have lost its will to fight. It seems to have adopted the US political strategy of not fighting in losing states, but concentrating on marginal or swing states. It happened in Gujarat Assembly elections and in TN during Gen. Elections. The Congress have simply given up the fight in those states.
More horribly, they have started to believe the US political strategy in its entirety. The Congress believes there are states dyed eternally 'Blue' and 'Red' like in the USA. They forget that in India, there are no more 'with you forever' states, either for the Congress, the BJP, or even the Communists (even the 7 sisters of North East are churning). This wrong assumption of a strong Blue state or orientation makes the Congress blunder their winning chances due to overconfidence - it happened in Punjab Assembly elections.
The political reality in India is that you fight everywhere, with full vigour, even where your party seems to be weak. In India such a show of presence acts as a catalyst, and creates a 'wave'. It happened with Narendra Modi in General Elections. Narendra Modi and Amit Shah are two politicians who have thoroughly understood this point, and hence their relentless membership drive, radio talk shows, digital dramas, et al.
Thus, I feel the BJP has a slight edge going into election day in Bihar.
(image courtesy newsmobile.in)
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