Just as I wrote on 22 Feb 2014, - read post here - Jayalalithaa’s dreams of becoming Prime Minister after the General Elections have disappeared. The reasons are many and would require an elaborate article on its own, but over next 3 days, let us see who has the chances of bagging the 40 seats in TN & Pondicherry.
Personally, I think 5 seats are goner for the ADMK led by Jayalalithaa. The hopes of ADMK are in tatters in the 3 Metro seats of North, Central and South Chennai. The decision to field a North Chennai candidate in South Chennai, has damaged both the constituencies. In North Chennai, the breakup with communists sealed the fate, especially if we recall that ADMK has never represented this seat in the Parliament, ever. Thirumavalavan is a sure fire winner in Chidambaram (Reserved), while in Pondicherry it is a toss up between NR Congress and V. Narayanaswami of the INC.
Again, my prediction in the remaining 35 seats is 23 wins at the minimum for Jayalalithaa’s ADMK, and the majority of the rest to the DMK, with half a dozen seats hanging in the balance. The Congress would be happy to show a vote percentage of 10% and if they can secure deposit (16.66% of total votes polled) in half the seats, they would be in seventh heaven. The BJP’s Rainbow alliance, for all the song-dance-and-fury would not win a single seat, and should be happy to secure deposits in half the number of seats.
But experience has shown that predicting the results in Tamil Nadu is the most tricky job in the world. No one gets it right (including me) as the series of articles exposed during the Assembly Elections 2011.
Let us take a look at the rumored Police Reports, and the preliminary guesstimates in the Tamil weekly Junior Vikatan around 13th April.
The first relevant column (C) marks the constituencies where the state police allegedly said the ADMK is weak (ADMK -) 19 seats. The next one (D) marks the seats where Jayalalithaa reportedly felt weak (ADMK -) 10 seats. The next one (E) mark the seats where Stalin reportedly felt the DMK was doing good (DMK +) 14 seats. The next 2 are where the BJP and Congress are said to be showing a strong presence.
Theoretically, the constituencies marked ADMK- and DMK+ should be the same or at least the spread should be tightly grouped. But look at the spread we have. Disregarding the 4 seats where PMK/BJP/Congress were running good (6. Arani, 21.Mayiladuthurai, 29.Ramnad & 31.Tirunelveli), we have 28, yes, twenty eight constituency spread, where ADMK reportedly is weak and DMK strong.
That, to me, is neither an intelligence report nor a measure of mood of the electorate. IMHO, it is not even a forecast, just wishful thinking.
Screenshot for pinning :-)
Personally, I think 5 seats are goner for the ADMK led by Jayalalithaa. The hopes of ADMK are in tatters in the 3 Metro seats of North, Central and South Chennai. The decision to field a North Chennai candidate in South Chennai, has damaged both the constituencies. In North Chennai, the breakup with communists sealed the fate, especially if we recall that ADMK has never represented this seat in the Parliament, ever. Thirumavalavan is a sure fire winner in Chidambaram (Reserved), while in Pondicherry it is a toss up between NR Congress and V. Narayanaswami of the INC.
Again, my prediction in the remaining 35 seats is 23 wins at the minimum for Jayalalithaa’s ADMK, and the majority of the rest to the DMK, with half a dozen seats hanging in the balance. The Congress would be happy to show a vote percentage of 10% and if they can secure deposit (16.66% of total votes polled) in half the seats, they would be in seventh heaven. The BJP’s Rainbow alliance, for all the song-dance-and-fury would not win a single seat, and should be happy to secure deposits in half the number of seats.
But experience has shown that predicting the results in Tamil Nadu is the most tricky job in the world. No one gets it right (including me) as the series of articles exposed during the Assembly Elections 2011.
Let us take a look at the rumored Police Reports, and the preliminary guesstimates in the Tamil weekly Junior Vikatan around 13th April.
The first relevant column (C) marks the constituencies where the state police allegedly said the ADMK is weak (ADMK -) 19 seats. The next one (D) marks the seats where Jayalalithaa reportedly felt weak (ADMK -) 10 seats. The next one (E) mark the seats where Stalin reportedly felt the DMK was doing good (DMK +) 14 seats. The next 2 are where the BJP and Congress are said to be showing a strong presence.
Theoretically, the constituencies marked ADMK- and DMK+ should be the same or at least the spread should be tightly grouped. But look at the spread we have. Disregarding the 4 seats where PMK/BJP/Congress were running good (6. Arani, 21.Mayiladuthurai, 29.Ramnad & 31.Tirunelveli), we have 28, yes, twenty eight constituency spread, where ADMK reportedly is weak and DMK strong.
That, to me, is neither an intelligence report nor a measure of mood of the electorate. IMHO, it is not even a forecast, just wishful thinking.
Screenshot for pinning :-)
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