The first time voters are going to be disappointed, and learn the lesson of tactical voting. The ADMK sympathizers are in the same boat. That’s what I could analyse in today’s vote in the Tamil Nadu phase of India General Elections (Lok Sabha) 2014.
I sauntered up to vote just before 12:00 IST. Standing in the queue for about 15 minutes I could see a lot of first time voters and their parents.
BTW the Election Commission of India should take a second look at the present voting booths, where the voter’s head and shoulders are visible and only the rest of the body is hidden by a hardboard/cardboard temporary canopy. For, knowing where the buttons are placed (and accorded to different candidates), it is easy to discern whom they are voting for - even first timers noticed it.
After voting, I spent more than an hour hanging about the voting booth(s), for there were some 6 to 8 booths in the same premises. Whiling the time away chatting to various party representatives, and in a convenient position to observe the voters, it was a shock to feel their mood.
Now, I do not recommend anyone else, first time voter or otherwise, to mimic my actions. It needs careful observation of voters, their mindsets, and where are looking at the candidate information lists pasted outside the booths. Basically what every party representative tries to observe is the candidate's name and position a voter surreptiously looks at, while approaching the booth or standing in the queue.
To cut to the chase, I found there is indeed a Modi effect. The majority of the 1st timers appear to have voted for Modi. Even more of a worry was the horror of Jayalalithaa’s ADMK supporters going for the Modi button.
Later in the afternoon, I called up around 200 voter-friends, who I know are ‘sympathizers' of Jayalalithaa. Most of them ‘sound’ to have been swept off in the Modi wave.
Then I called up friends and friends-of-friends in Coimbatore (West), Vizhuppuram (North-Centre), Cuddalore (East), Thanjavur (Centre), and Tuticorin, Kanyakumari and Sivaganga (South) of Tamil Nadu. All of them agreed that ‘known’ Jayalalitha’s ADMK voters, ‘sound’ as if they voted for Modi and the BJP alliance.
By 4 O’clock in the evening, it was apparent that the Tamil Nadu’s Lady has strangely miscalculated, and what she was trying to safeguard against - vote erosion (which concept would need a separate post) - has actually happened.
But ADMK and DMK are the two ~400,000 vote behemoths in every TN constituency. If Jayalalithaa’s ADMK has suffered vote erosion, the BJP’s Rainbow alliance and Modi would not be automatic winners.
For every 100 vote erosion in ADMK sympathizers, only 1 or 2 DMK sympathizers appear to have defected to the BJP. Which means, the DMK would sweep the TN phase of India General Elections 2014.
When I expressed this view cheerfully, I was scolded by well wishers calling from USA/Europe, and neighbours in Chennai. They could not digest that, of all the mishaps, DMK would end up the winner! But that is not of my doing. The voters in Chennai (and TN as it sounds), seem to have endorsed DMK by default.
As a political analyst, I can only ROFLMAO. In contrast to my earlier predictions, I now feel that the DMK would mop up as many as 23, with half a dozen additional seats hanging in the balance.
Last week, reading Cho. Ramaswamy’s lead article on Thugluk (issue dated 30/4/14), I thought the old man had finally lost his marbles. He had written that to prevent a DMK resurgence, neutral voters should vote for ADMK (though he qualified it writing that 'in the 6 seats where BJP is fighting, people should endorse BJP'). Today, I have to salute him. What I can only deduct on the voting day, he could foresee 10 days ago.
(update: 25/04/2014 - Article rewritten for more clarity and conciseness)
I sauntered up to vote just before 12:00 IST. Standing in the queue for about 15 minutes I could see a lot of first time voters and their parents.
BTW the Election Commission of India should take a second look at the present voting booths, where the voter’s head and shoulders are visible and only the rest of the body is hidden by a hardboard/cardboard temporary canopy. For, knowing where the buttons are placed (and accorded to different candidates), it is easy to discern whom they are voting for - even first timers noticed it.
After voting, I spent more than an hour hanging about the voting booth(s), for there were some 6 to 8 booths in the same premises. Whiling the time away chatting to various party representatives, and in a convenient position to observe the voters, it was a shock to feel their mood.
Now, I do not recommend anyone else, first time voter or otherwise, to mimic my actions. It needs careful observation of voters, their mindsets, and where are looking at the candidate information lists pasted outside the booths. Basically what every party representative tries to observe is the candidate's name and position a voter surreptiously looks at, while approaching the booth or standing in the queue.
To cut to the chase, I found there is indeed a Modi effect. The majority of the 1st timers appear to have voted for Modi. Even more of a worry was the horror of Jayalalithaa’s ADMK supporters going for the Modi button.
Later in the afternoon, I called up around 200 voter-friends, who I know are ‘sympathizers' of Jayalalithaa. Most of them ‘sound’ to have been swept off in the Modi wave.
Then I called up friends and friends-of-friends in Coimbatore (West), Vizhuppuram (North-Centre), Cuddalore (East), Thanjavur (Centre), and Tuticorin, Kanyakumari and Sivaganga (South) of Tamil Nadu. All of them agreed that ‘known’ Jayalalitha’s ADMK voters, ‘sound’ as if they voted for Modi and the BJP alliance.
By 4 O’clock in the evening, it was apparent that the Tamil Nadu’s Lady has strangely miscalculated, and what she was trying to safeguard against - vote erosion (which concept would need a separate post) - has actually happened.
But ADMK and DMK are the two ~400,000 vote behemoths in every TN constituency. If Jayalalithaa’s ADMK has suffered vote erosion, the BJP’s Rainbow alliance and Modi would not be automatic winners.
For every 100 vote erosion in ADMK sympathizers, only 1 or 2 DMK sympathizers appear to have defected to the BJP. Which means, the DMK would sweep the TN phase of India General Elections 2014.
When I expressed this view cheerfully, I was scolded by well wishers calling from USA/Europe, and neighbours in Chennai. They could not digest that, of all the mishaps, DMK would end up the winner! But that is not of my doing. The voters in Chennai (and TN as it sounds), seem to have endorsed DMK by default.
As a political analyst, I can only ROFLMAO. In contrast to my earlier predictions, I now feel that the DMK would mop up as many as 23, with half a dozen additional seats hanging in the balance.
Last week, reading Cho. Ramaswamy’s lead article on Thugluk (issue dated 30/4/14), I thought the old man had finally lost his marbles. He had written that to prevent a DMK resurgence, neutral voters should vote for ADMK (though he qualified it writing that 'in the 6 seats where BJP is fighting, people should endorse BJP'). Today, I have to salute him. What I can only deduct on the voting day, he could foresee 10 days ago.
(update: 25/04/2014 - Article rewritten for more clarity and conciseness)
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