Five days after my post ‘Will present Low Pressure become Cyclone Madi’ and almost a week after appearing as a Low Pressure Area in the Bay of Bengal, the formation has graduated into a named Tropical Cyclone 06B MADI.
Whether as a Low Pressure area, or as a Depression, and even as a numbered Cyclone, 06B Madi has displayed a marked reluctance to move anywhere. For periods of up to 12 hours, she remained practically stationary.
So why was she so reluctant to move?
India Meteorological Department (IMD) advisory 03 of today explains it beautifully. There is an Upper Tropospheric Steering Ridge running along 10 degrees North Latitude. Its effect upon the Tropical Cyclone is the very slow Northward movement. Once the system crosses over, in the next 48 hours, the system may curve North-Northeast.
But after 72 hours, the Tropical Cyclone 06B Madi is forecast to weaken. The IMD says it as 06B Madi moves north of 13 degrees North Latitude, it will weaken due to higher Vertical Wind Shear (VWS) and colder sea water.
The JTWC essentially projects the same phenomenon - a weakening of the Tropical Cyclone 06B Madi. But what they say is a new Sub Tropical Ridge is expected to develop over Northern India and Bay of Bengal which would effectively cut off the movement of the Tropical Cyclone. Under the circumstances, higher VWS and Dry Air entering the system would weaken it.
So much for our hopes of rains over Tamil Nadu. We are still face a ~28% deficient rainfall from the Monsoon.
Whether as a Low Pressure area, or as a Depression, and even as a numbered Cyclone, 06B Madi has displayed a marked reluctance to move anywhere. For periods of up to 12 hours, she remained practically stationary.
So why was she so reluctant to move?
India Meteorological Department (IMD) advisory 03 of today explains it beautifully. There is an Upper Tropospheric Steering Ridge running along 10 degrees North Latitude. Its effect upon the Tropical Cyclone is the very slow Northward movement. Once the system crosses over, in the next 48 hours, the system may curve North-Northeast.
But after 72 hours, the Tropical Cyclone 06B Madi is forecast to weaken. The IMD says it as 06B Madi moves north of 13 degrees North Latitude, it will weaken due to higher Vertical Wind Shear (VWS) and colder sea water.
The JTWC essentially projects the same phenomenon - a weakening of the Tropical Cyclone 06B Madi. But what they say is a new Sub Tropical Ridge is expected to develop over Northern India and Bay of Bengal which would effectively cut off the movement of the Tropical Cyclone. Under the circumstances, higher VWS and Dry Air entering the system would weaken it.
So much for our hopes of rains over Tamil Nadu. We are still face a ~28% deficient rainfall from the Monsoon.
Tags: tropical-cyclone,06b-madi
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