The National Capital Region of Delhi is polling right now, as also in the state of Mizoram in the North East. The elections in the other 3 states - Madhya Pradesh (25 Nov), Rajasthan (1 Dec), and Chhattisgarh (11 & 19 Nov) - were completed earlier.
While everyone within and without India are watching the poll process with interest, there is a doubt whether these 5 state elections are Bellwether in nature. The CM of my home state TN, Jayalalithaa, has gone one step further. She termed the by-election in the lone Yercaud Assembly Seat as the harbinger of the General Elections 2014!
So let us take a look at what the results could be, and whether these 5 state elections are indicative of the mood of the country for 2014 general elections.
As it looks right now (to me):
The national opposition party, the BJP, usually starts with every electioneering with the bravado of ‘results are indications of changes to come’. After the results the party tries to put on a brave front, blaming all and sundry, except themselves, for their showing.
But a couple of days back, the BJP President Rajnath Singh has reported to have dismissed the speculation that these 5 state elections are Bellwether in nature!
If the results match what I have predicted, the BJP might well pray that these elections are in no way indicative of the mood of the nation, with the General Elections 2014 barely 6 months away.
As for the Congress, whichever the way wind blows, the party better take note of these elections as Bellwether. The party seems to be without a clear electoral strategy going into 2014. Even worse is that it looks like the party has refused to learn lessons from earlier state elections.
They seem not to have realized that
While everyone within and without India are watching the poll process with interest, there is a doubt whether these 5 state elections are Bellwether in nature. The CM of my home state TN, Jayalalithaa, has gone one step further. She termed the by-election in the lone Yercaud Assembly Seat as the harbinger of the General Elections 2014!
So let us take a look at what the results could be, and whether these 5 state elections are indicative of the mood of the country for 2014 general elections.
As it looks right now (to me):
- Mizoram: the Congress would retain power, for there is no real opposition;
- Madhya Pradesh: the BJP would scrape through, albeit with a reduced majority;
- Chhattisgarh: too close to call, though the BJP can end up as the single largest party, but still lose power;
- Rajasthan: neck and neck with Congress probably ending up with a slim lead;
- Delhi: Sheila Dikshit may well squeeze through as Kejriwal’s AAP will split the anti-Congress votes;
The national opposition party, the BJP, usually starts with every electioneering with the bravado of ‘results are indications of changes to come’. After the results the party tries to put on a brave front, blaming all and sundry, except themselves, for their showing.
But a couple of days back, the BJP President Rajnath Singh has reported to have dismissed the speculation that these 5 state elections are Bellwether in nature!
If the results match what I have predicted, the BJP might well pray that these elections are in no way indicative of the mood of the nation, with the General Elections 2014 barely 6 months away.
As for the Congress, whichever the way wind blows, the party better take note of these elections as Bellwether. The party seems to be without a clear electoral strategy going into 2014. Even worse is that it looks like the party has refused to learn lessons from earlier state elections.
They seem not to have realized that
- Their overconfidence cost them the Punjab elections;
- A more aggressive push in Gujarat might well have made Modi’s life difficult, if not actually turned the tables on him;
- Too much of a bravado may actually hurt their chances, a la Uttar Pradesh.
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