In 2013 the Akshaya Tritiya day occurs on 13 May. Just look at the date - 13 May 13 - with two thirteen in it. Though the number 13 is not considered an outright taboo in India, people do have an anxiety about it.
My own phobia is of a 13 falling on a Tuesday, which in the past has been the day when big lifestyle changes - both good and bad - have occurred. Fortunately Akshaya Tritia on 13 May 13 is a Monday and not a Tuesday. BTW there is only one Tuesday the 13th in 2013 - in the month of August.
Looking back at last year’s Akshaya Tritiya post makes me wonder what will be the market sentiment this year. For Gold plunged to its lowest price in two years yesterday. The price of the precious metal went down by 9.2% to $1,395 an ounce. In Indian terms gold fell by Rs. 750 on Monday to trade around Rs. 27,620 / 10gm in Chennai.
The reasons cited are multiple. From,
(image courtesy WSJ.com)
My wise half whispers, ‘It rests on 2 issues. The annual results of companies which will start dribbling in next few weeks. After the Infosys blinder, the markets are shaky. Second is the as yet unsaid issue of how much money based on gold loans is circulating in India and whether debtors will be called to top up the “margin” money!’
My own phobia is of a 13 falling on a Tuesday, which in the past has been the day when big lifestyle changes - both good and bad - have occurred. Fortunately Akshaya Tritia on 13 May 13 is a Monday and not a Tuesday. BTW there is only one Tuesday the 13th in 2013 - in the month of August.
Looking back at last year’s Akshaya Tritiya post makes me wonder what will be the market sentiment this year. For Gold plunged to its lowest price in two years yesterday. The price of the precious metal went down by 9.2% to $1,395 an ounce. In Indian terms gold fell by Rs. 750 on Monday to trade around Rs. 27,620 / 10gm in Chennai.
The reasons cited are multiple. From,
- the expected easing of Quantitative Easing (QE) by Federal Reserve, which means no more print-as-needed US Dollar notes, tightened money circulation and fall in US inflation;
- the now apparent slow down of Chinese economy;
- the announcement by Cyprus last week that it will sell most of its gold reserves;
- the suspicion of follow-through sell off of their own gold reserves by troubled economies in Europe - Portugal, Spain and Italy
- speculators dumping gold to switch to the equities market.
- Will the present drop and the projected further decline in price make the people rush to buy gold on 13 May 13 or will it make the people hold back a little?
- What will the jewellers do with all the gold they have bought over the last few months (years?) at higher price? Will they sell and swallow the loss?
- Or will the rush to buy gold cheaper actually help to creep the price up (in India at least)?
My wise half whispers, ‘It rests on 2 issues. The annual results of companies which will start dribbling in next few weeks. After the Infosys blinder, the markets are shaky. Second is the as yet unsaid issue of how much money based on gold loans is circulating in India and whether debtors will be called to top up the “margin” money!’
I think Gold prices may touch around Rs.29k per 10 gm on Akshaya Tritiya rush, and later stabilize somewhere between 28.5-29k per 10 gm. If the monsoons turn out to be good we can see some demand in later months post Akshaya Tritiya, and possibly another hike to Rs.30 K or above during Diwali cannot be ruled out.
ReplyDeletehyi
ReplyDeletehi @madhav or @purusotham_b : If you think Gold is HYI, you are another brainwashed one. Instead of arguing with you on why Gold isn't HYI, let me point to an article in Moneylife.in which explains more succintly, explicitly and expertly why it isn't. Let also point out that my article here was on 16th April, while the Moneylife article is dated 03 May.
ReplyDeletehttp://moneylife.in/article/gold-turns-cold/32522.html
BTW, that moneylife article may need a subscriber access. If you don't have one (and yet still think Gold is HYI), tell me and I'll try to send you a photostat of that article.
;-)
Sorry for the delay in replying. Gold seems to be twisting everyone around. Here are the stats for the week (since your comment) Chennai price of Gold:
ReplyDeleteDate-------------24k-1gm----24k-8gm---22k-1gm---22k-8gm
13/May/2013---2719.50---21756.00---2543.00---20344.00
11/May/2013---2739.50---21916.00---2561.00---20488.00
10/May/2013---2733.50---21868.00---2556.00---20448.00
09/May/2013---2752.00---22016.00---2573.00---20584.00
08/May/2013---2721.50---21772.00---2545.00---20360.00
07/May/2013---2741.00---21928.00---2563.00---20504.00
06/May/2013---2757.00---22056.00---2578.00---20624.00
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ReplyDeletegold rs
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