Around 6 hours from now, the United States will be officially going to polls. Though the symbolic or attention grabbing people of Dixville Notch in New Hampshire have already cast their traditional middle-of-the-night vote.
With all of 10 votes, it was a tie reports Xinhua. Around 21:30 IST (11 a.m. EST), the experts from 5 networks and AP would go into a huddle. The 5 approved networks and AP would start calling their projections or results after another 6 hours.
During those 6 hours, these guys (and gals) will be pouring through all the opinion, early and exit poll projections and make up their mind. The huddle doesn’t mean the projections would be a consensus. It doesn’t mean they would get the Presidential election results exactly right. The same guys got it horribly wrong in the US Presidential elections in 2000 with Florida (Bush vs Gore) and became embarrassingly edgy in 2008 (Bush vs Kerry).
Personally, I feel this US Presidential election is not going to be so easy to call. Of course The Buckeyes (18), The Sunshiners (29) along with The Old Dominion (13) could very well lean to one side and finish all of it within 3 hours.
Sixty electoral college votes when added to the existing solid 180+ (of either Barack Obama or Mitt Romney) makes calling the US Election 2012 a no brainer. Even a dumbhas like me can do it. More so if The Badger state (10) huddles with the three.
But if those 4 states don’t vote overwhelmingly one way, here are 3 reasons why calling out the results could be hairy.
Though Huffington Post of today morning (India Time) have confidently predicted Ohio (18) to lean towards Barack Obama. Interestingly Huff Post also says Wisconsin (10) is with Ohio. They have already given the election to Barack Obama with 271 and 76 toss up electoral votes.
Here is the mash-up of projections from NYT, WP, CNN and Huff Post.
With all of 10 votes, it was a tie reports Xinhua. Around 21:30 IST (11 a.m. EST), the experts from 5 networks and AP would go into a huddle. The 5 approved networks and AP would start calling their projections or results after another 6 hours.
During those 6 hours, these guys (and gals) will be pouring through all the opinion, early and exit poll projections and make up their mind. The huddle doesn’t mean the projections would be a consensus. It doesn’t mean they would get the Presidential election results exactly right. The same guys got it horribly wrong in the US Presidential elections in 2000 with Florida (Bush vs Gore) and became embarrassingly edgy in 2008 (Bush vs Kerry).
Personally, I feel this US Presidential election is not going to be so easy to call. Of course The Buckeyes (18), The Sunshiners (29) along with The Old Dominion (13) could very well lean to one side and finish all of it within 3 hours.
Sixty electoral college votes when added to the existing solid 180+ (of either Barack Obama or Mitt Romney) makes calling the US Election 2012 a no brainer. Even a dumbhas like me can do it. More so if The Badger state (10) huddles with the three.
But if those 4 states don’t vote overwhelmingly one way, here are 3 reasons why calling out the results could be hairy.
- For one the candidates are in a dead heat. Though Obama is reported to have pulled slightly ahead of Mitt Romney in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, one or two percentage points are well within the margin of error.
- Fully 1/3rd of the voters have taken advantage of early voting options. When one-third of the voters have already decided, the margin of error in the exit polls of today (tonight in India) is going to be significant.
- Neither of the candidates have actually displayed charisma or been able to motivate the voters. Barack Obama is a pale version of his 2008 candidature. Even his most ardent supporters would have to agree that he has been a disappointment. As for Mitt Romney and his ability - does he have any other ability except to make tonnes of money in Bain Capital?
Though Huffington Post of today morning (India Time) have confidently predicted Ohio (18) to lean towards Barack Obama. Interestingly Huff Post also says Wisconsin (10) is with Ohio. They have already given the election to Barack Obama with 271 and 76 toss up electoral votes.
Here is the mash-up of projections from NYT, WP, CNN and Huff Post.
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