The most worrisome aspect of a Tropical Cyclone in the Bay of Bengal, as far as Chennai is concerned, is when the TC heads towards Sri Lanka, and slows down, in the months of October and November.
And unless the Tropical Cyclone has sustained winds of above 60 knots or so, that is, if it remains as an ordinary Cyclonic Storm or Severe Cyclonic Storm, they do tend to slow down. When they do so in the months of October to December, the Tamil Nadu coast is the one which is likely to be hit by the Tropical Cyclone.
The sailors prowling the North Indian Ocean are well aware of the deflection barrier posed by the reverse-wedge of the India-Sri Lanka adjoining coastlines to a cyclone approaching from the Eastern Bay of Bengal. After all, the Bay of Bengal Pilot has had those storm tracks for ages now.
While I can’t get my hand on the BoB Pilot right now, what I do have got hold of is the Tracks of Storms in BOB and Arabian Sea 1877-1960, published by IMD in 1964, between September and December.
Look at those tracks - which span from 1877 to 1960. It is good that the last 50+ years data aren’t there. Else those graphs for October and November would be indecipherable.
:-D
x
So if you are in or around Chennai, be prepared to face a possible Cyclone. The latest (as of this article) JTWC graphic shows the storm heading towards Chennai.
The JTWC text warning for TC 02B (NILAM) NR 005 date/time 30/1500Z (2030 IST) also states that there is increasing confidence in predicted track as dynamic models now have improved agreement.
The earlier TC 02B NR 004 had cautioned that forecast track is uncertain due to conflict between dynamic models.
PS: added at 22:40IST- Didn’t I predict that the North East Monsoon would be adequate, if not abundant - on April 10th?
If this is not an ‘I told you so’ moment, I don’t know what it is!
(Give me all the bows in the comments) <3
And unless the Tropical Cyclone has sustained winds of above 60 knots or so, that is, if it remains as an ordinary Cyclonic Storm or Severe Cyclonic Storm, they do tend to slow down. When they do so in the months of October to December, the Tamil Nadu coast is the one which is likely to be hit by the Tropical Cyclone.
The sailors prowling the North Indian Ocean are well aware of the deflection barrier posed by the reverse-wedge of the India-Sri Lanka adjoining coastlines to a cyclone approaching from the Eastern Bay of Bengal. After all, the Bay of Bengal Pilot has had those storm tracks for ages now.
While I can’t get my hand on the BoB Pilot right now, what I do have got hold of is the Tracks of Storms in BOB and Arabian Sea 1877-1960, published by IMD in 1964, between September and December.
Look at those tracks - which span from 1877 to 1960. It is good that the last 50+ years data aren’t there. Else those graphs for October and November would be indecipherable.
:-D
x
So if you are in or around Chennai, be prepared to face a possible Cyclone. The latest (as of this article) JTWC graphic shows the storm heading towards Chennai.
The JTWC text warning for TC 02B (NILAM) NR 005 date/time 30/1500Z (2030 IST) also states that there is increasing confidence in predicted track as dynamic models now have improved agreement.
The earlier TC 02B NR 004 had cautioned that forecast track is uncertain due to conflict between dynamic models.
PS: added at 22:40IST- Didn’t I predict that the North East Monsoon would be adequate, if not abundant - on April 10th?
If this is not an ‘I told you so’ moment, I don’t know what it is!
(Give me all the bows in the comments) <3
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