The India Meteorological Department would no doubt pull its collective head from where ever they’ve inserted it into and ‘predict’ or ‘forecast’ about the Indian Monsoon a few days before it sets over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands - in the middle of May.
Even then they will dilly-dally till they can actually feel the rain drops falling on their heads at Kerala - by the first week of June. Not that such on-the-spot ‘forecasts’ makes one trust or even believe their predictions. The IMD and its officers, especially the Director of Chennai chapter is the subject of much black humour - it would require a post of its own.
:-)
For that matter, even the NOAA with its dedicated El Nino - La Nina web pages, everyday observations and weekly forecasts is unsure or unwilling to predict the Indian Monsoon. All they dare to say till now (05 April 2012) is that the La Nina effect of 2010-11 is most likely to transition into a ENSO-neutral conditions after April.
The Aussies in their commentary released today, (10 April), have gone one step further. They are predicting a neutral or ENSO effect during the year for sure.
In case you are wondering why I am talking about ENSO, ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) effect is supposed to affect the Indian monsoon. If there is a strong ENSO, India might face a drought situation.
I say ‘might’ because, in 2001, another phenomenon which affects and effectively modifies ENSO was discovered in the Indian Ocean. Called the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), , it has been shown to offset the effects of ENSO when positive - that is the waters off the East coast of southern Africa are warmer than the waters off Indonesia and Malaysia.
So while the Aussies and the Americans are starting to hedge their bets, and our own IMD is busy navel gazing, unable to offer any forecasts, here is my own take based on native knowledge.
In 2010, I blogged that Monsoon would be abundant, especially the NE Monsoon, which brings much of the rainfall to TN and adjoining areas/parts of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. It did happen, didn’t it?
On 06th of July, I predicted an abundant Monsoon, 3 days later NOAA-CPC confirmed a La Nina effect and barely two weeks later Pakistan started to experience massive floods
.
Whatever prediction models NOAA, BOM Australia or IMD depend on, my climate models are simple. The Neem, Tamarind and Gulmohar trees. In 2010, I knew only about the Neem trees, while in the last 2 years have added the knowledge about Tamarind and Gulmohar trees.
The rule of the thumb is
The truth about Neem flowering has been borne out in 2010. This year we will either prove or disprove the other two. While I don’t have photos of abundant Tamarind fruits, here is a snap of the Neem tree in front of my apartment complex, which is bursting with flowers.
And the Gulmohar tree several houses away, leaking its smelly sap.
Update: As I was snapping up the leaky Gulmohar, 2 old men gave their versions of ‘native’ knowledge on it, which didn’t have any mention of the monsoon. One was that the leaky Gulmohar indicates a very hot Summer. The second was significantly at variance - that it would probably rain during the hottest part of summer! Which sums up the problem of relying on ‘native’ knowledge.
;-D
Update (13 June 2012): Though the Neem flowers were abundant, most of them (almost 98%) by my estimate, flaked off and didn’t grow the fruits. It was visible in May when a Neem so full of flowers in April normally turns into a tree peppered with green globs. By June all those fruits should’ve ripened with the birds, especially the Crows, and the Squirrels gorging on them. By mid-June, like today, the terrace of every home would have been spattered with 2 dozen or so bird droppings with Neem seeds. I could spot just half a dozen of them today morning. Does this indicate a slackening of Monsoon after promising a fine start? Is Mother Nature capable of such ‘on-the-fly’ indicators as to the weather?
Let’s wait,and watch and learn.
Even then they will dilly-dally till they can actually feel the rain drops falling on their heads at Kerala - by the first week of June. Not that such on-the-spot ‘forecasts’ makes one trust or even believe their predictions. The IMD and its officers, especially the Director of Chennai chapter is the subject of much black humour - it would require a post of its own.
:-)
For that matter, even the NOAA with its dedicated El Nino - La Nina web pages, everyday observations and weekly forecasts is unsure or unwilling to predict the Indian Monsoon. All they dare to say till now (05 April 2012) is that the La Nina effect of 2010-11 is most likely to transition into a ENSO-neutral conditions after April.
The Aussies in their commentary released today, (10 April), have gone one step further. They are predicting a neutral or ENSO effect during the year for sure.
In case you are wondering why I am talking about ENSO, ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) effect is supposed to affect the Indian monsoon. If there is a strong ENSO, India might face a drought situation.
I say ‘might’ because, in 2001, another phenomenon which affects and effectively modifies ENSO was discovered in the Indian Ocean. Called the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), , it has been shown to offset the effects of ENSO when positive - that is the waters off the East coast of southern Africa are warmer than the waters off Indonesia and Malaysia.
So while the Aussies and the Americans are starting to hedge their bets, and our own IMD is busy navel gazing, unable to offer any forecasts, here is my own take based on native knowledge.
In 2010, I blogged that Monsoon would be abundant, especially the NE Monsoon, which brings much of the rainfall to TN and adjoining areas/parts of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. It did happen, didn’t it?
On 06th of July, I predicted an abundant Monsoon, 3 days later NOAA-CPC confirmed a La Nina effect and barely two weeks later Pakistan started to experience massive floods
.
Whatever prediction models NOAA, BOM Australia or IMD depend on, my climate models are simple. The Neem, Tamarind and Gulmohar trees. In 2010, I knew only about the Neem trees, while in the last 2 years have added the knowledge about Tamarind and Gulmohar trees.
The rule of the thumb is
- if the Neem trees are rich in flowering,
- if the Tamarind fruits are abundant, and
- if sap starts to leak out of old ‘wounds’ in the Gulmohar trees,
The truth about Neem flowering has been borne out in 2010. This year we will either prove or disprove the other two. While I don’t have photos of abundant Tamarind fruits, here is a snap of the Neem tree in front of my apartment complex, which is bursting with flowers.
And the Gulmohar tree several houses away, leaking its smelly sap.
Update: As I was snapping up the leaky Gulmohar, 2 old men gave their versions of ‘native’ knowledge on it, which didn’t have any mention of the monsoon. One was that the leaky Gulmohar indicates a very hot Summer. The second was significantly at variance - that it would probably rain during the hottest part of summer! Which sums up the problem of relying on ‘native’ knowledge.
;-D
Update (13 June 2012): Though the Neem flowers were abundant, most of them (almost 98%) by my estimate, flaked off and didn’t grow the fruits. It was visible in May when a Neem so full of flowers in April normally turns into a tree peppered with green globs. By June all those fruits should’ve ripened with the birds, especially the Crows, and the Squirrels gorging on them. By mid-June, like today, the terrace of every home would have been spattered with 2 dozen or so bird droppings with Neem seeds. I could spot just half a dozen of them today morning. Does this indicate a slackening of Monsoon after promising a fine start? Is Mother Nature capable of such ‘on-the-fly’ indicators as to the weather?
Let’s wait,
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