Both the National parties, the Congress and the BJP have been eviscerated. The regional parties haven’t covered themselves in glory - despite the rhetoric.
Before we go into them, of the 5 states which went to the polls over the last 2 months, two are perhaps inconsequential and shouldn’t distort the National picture, or even the regional picture.
Manipur and Goa:
Manipur in which the Congress won a thumping majority, retaining the state, and Goa where the BJP overran the ruling Congress are, in a sense, only a footnote. They would have been a frown raisers, if the people there had voted for the opposite results.
Of the other 3 - Punjab, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh, the only state which offered a real head to head for the National parties was Uttarakhand.
Uttarakhand:
In Uttarakhand as the results stand now, neither of the parties, the erstwhile ruling BJP or the challenger Congress have been able to swing the people around. They are still jousting head to head. The BJP might claim victory as they are 1 seat ahead in the 70 member assembly, but to use their own oft quoted rhetoric, the total votes and the seats by the non-BJP parties, outweigh their 31. Even worse, whatever the excuse the good man might give and we would accept them at face value because B.C. Khanduri is a good man, the fact is he lost his contested seat. Whoever forms the government there, it reflects the state of the Nation and the national parties - either of them haven’t caught the people’s imagination, as of now.
Punjab:
Punjab is the state where the Congress would ever rue. Not just because the state of Punjab had never ever before returned the ruling party back to power in an election, and that Congress as the erstwhile opposition fumbled that record and allowed the ruling Akali Dal and BJP alliance to retain power.
The actual vote share shows a 6% swing against the ruling combine and the opposing Congress party allowed that swing to benefit some new upstarts, who spoiled the party for the Congress. If the Congress could have swung even half of that 6%, they would have kept the Punjab record clean, that of not voting a ruling party back to power in an election.
Here, despite what the Akali Dal and BJP would like us to believe and try and varnish that BJP didn’t do so badly, the fact is the local major partner of the alliance, the Akali Dal has swept the polls wherever they were in the fray, while the BJP has been decimated. For the Congress, the problem has been complacency and infighting. Just like in Goa, and to an extent in Uttar Pradesh, rewarding two, three or four members of the same family with tickets to contest is not well received by the voters.
Uttar Pradesh:
Uttar Pradesh is the state which has convoluted every pollster by returning a whopping majority to the Samajwadi Party of Mulyam Singh, completely rejecting the rule of Mayawati’s BSP. A sad day for a woman who an year back thought she had a shot at becoming the Prime Minister of India. (Which has a lesson for others, including Rahul Gandhi).
The impressive margins of SP wins shows the people while choosing to reject the Mayawati’s BSP agenda have plonked for the obvious alternate, just like the people in my home state TN did while rejecting Karunanidhi’s DMK to go for Jayalalitha’s ADMK.
The Congress has made an impressive gain the vote share at ~15% equalling the BJP’s vote share. But like in Punjab hasn’t been to swing that extra 3% to 6% more which would have catapulted them into a major player or even the king maker.
The same can be said for the BJP which is much more organised in UP, w.r.t. the Congress. It is a matter of great concern to everyone that the principal national opposition party, with a far more formidable organisation on the ground has not been able to trump the Congress. Despite the dozen seats they are up than the Congress, their vote share is similar about 15%. The BJP spokesman Sudeendra Kulkarni said this in the morning while the BJP started to slip from the early leads and it is true. When the people of UP chose to go for an alternate to Mayawati, it is sad that the BJP couldn’t stand up and be counted.
I do not say this in a patronizing attitude or even in schadenfreude, but in regret. I would like to see, believe it or not, either a BJP or a Congress rule in every state of the Union, with the regional parties only having a look see. I might well have to wait for 30 years to see it, but I think that day will come.
And in UP, with such a massive majority and if the SP tries to administer in the same manner in which it did last time, within 2 years I foresee a chaos there.
The UPA Government:
There is a perspective that this inability of the Congress to get that last few yards burst, the crucial 3% to 6% vote swing in their favour, might be because the people aren’t charmed by the antics, fiascos and the policies of the Central Government. With hindsight it is probably true. When the Central Government is doing all it can in making life miserable for the common man, it is difficult for the local party setup or even a well meaning young ‘prince’ to run the marathon and manage a final sprint.
No doubt it was in every voters mind that they would probably be hit with a petro-product price hike as soon as election results are out.
It is bad in both ways. That such a perspective has been allowed to grow - (1) the government doesn’t care for about prices and the perhaps cynical thought in their minds that a price hike is timed with election result; and (2) leaks about such a decision has been allowed to spread. The chief character of this UPA administration has been leaks galore.
If my family talks even leak out half as much as this government, I would be better off ‘passing water’ on my street, in the open, in full view of everyone of my neighbours, instead of using my bathroom.
:-D
Rahul Gandhi:
Rahul Gandhi has owned up responsibility for the loss in UP and has said that he has ‘learned his lessons’. I have my doubts. And it seems people do too. It is not that they do not trust him, but they still have to see him deliver.
His own party, despite what they say out in loud, I guess aren’t so impressed with his ability to deliver wins in elections. To be fair to him, he had chosen to start with the states where the Congress was in its abysmal depth - like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Perhaps a mark of a young man, who like a teenager, believes that he can change the world.
But realpolitik is an entirely different animal. It blesses people who deliver and has a bad tendency to throw by the wayside people who do not give them spectacular victories.
Now that the plan as envisaged by Mrs. Gandhi or even by him, of the man who built the party up doesn’t work, it is maybe time to switch strategies.
Time is short and my dinner is getting cold. To put it in short and sweet, if
For now, I am really glad that no one, not one political party can question the veracity, reliability and genuineness of the Electronic Voting Machines.
Great Job Election Commission! Shalom!
Before we go into them, of the 5 states which went to the polls over the last 2 months, two are perhaps inconsequential and shouldn’t distort the National picture, or even the regional picture.
Manipur and Goa:
Manipur in which the Congress won a thumping majority, retaining the state, and Goa where the BJP overran the ruling Congress are, in a sense, only a footnote. They would have been a frown raisers, if the people there had voted for the opposite results.
Of the other 3 - Punjab, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh, the only state which offered a real head to head for the National parties was Uttarakhand.
Uttarakhand:
In Uttarakhand as the results stand now, neither of the parties, the erstwhile ruling BJP or the challenger Congress have been able to swing the people around. They are still jousting head to head. The BJP might claim victory as they are 1 seat ahead in the 70 member assembly, but to use their own oft quoted rhetoric, the total votes and the seats by the non-BJP parties, outweigh their 31. Even worse, whatever the excuse the good man might give and we would accept them at face value because B.C. Khanduri is a good man, the fact is he lost his contested seat. Whoever forms the government there, it reflects the state of the Nation and the national parties - either of them haven’t caught the people’s imagination, as of now.
Punjab:
Punjab is the state where the Congress would ever rue. Not just because the state of Punjab had never ever before returned the ruling party back to power in an election, and that Congress as the erstwhile opposition fumbled that record and allowed the ruling Akali Dal and BJP alliance to retain power.
The actual vote share shows a 6% swing against the ruling combine and the opposing Congress party allowed that swing to benefit some new upstarts, who spoiled the party for the Congress. If the Congress could have swung even half of that 6%, they would have kept the Punjab record clean, that of not voting a ruling party back to power in an election.
Here, despite what the Akali Dal and BJP would like us to believe and try and varnish that BJP didn’t do so badly, the fact is the local major partner of the alliance, the Akali Dal has swept the polls wherever they were in the fray, while the BJP has been decimated. For the Congress, the problem has been complacency and infighting. Just like in Goa, and to an extent in Uttar Pradesh, rewarding two, three or four members of the same family with tickets to contest is not well received by the voters.
Uttar Pradesh:
Uttar Pradesh is the state which has convoluted every pollster by returning a whopping majority to the Samajwadi Party of Mulyam Singh, completely rejecting the rule of Mayawati’s BSP. A sad day for a woman who an year back thought she had a shot at becoming the Prime Minister of India. (Which has a lesson for others, including Rahul Gandhi).
The impressive margins of SP wins shows the people while choosing to reject the Mayawati’s BSP agenda have plonked for the obvious alternate, just like the people in my home state TN did while rejecting Karunanidhi’s DMK to go for Jayalalitha’s ADMK.
The Congress has made an impressive gain the vote share at ~15% equalling the BJP’s vote share. But like in Punjab hasn’t been to swing that extra 3% to 6% more which would have catapulted them into a major player or even the king maker.
The same can be said for the BJP which is much more organised in UP, w.r.t. the Congress. It is a matter of great concern to everyone that the principal national opposition party, with a far more formidable organisation on the ground has not been able to trump the Congress. Despite the dozen seats they are up than the Congress, their vote share is similar about 15%. The BJP spokesman Sudeendra Kulkarni said this in the morning while the BJP started to slip from the early leads and it is true. When the people of UP chose to go for an alternate to Mayawati, it is sad that the BJP couldn’t stand up and be counted.
I do not say this in a patronizing attitude or even in schadenfreude, but in regret. I would like to see, believe it or not, either a BJP or a Congress rule in every state of the Union, with the regional parties only having a look see. I might well have to wait for 30 years to see it, but I think that day will come.
And in UP, with such a massive majority and if the SP tries to administer in the same manner in which it did last time, within 2 years I foresee a chaos there.
The UPA Government:
There is a perspective that this inability of the Congress to get that last few yards burst, the crucial 3% to 6% vote swing in their favour, might be because the people aren’t charmed by the antics, fiascos and the policies of the Central Government. With hindsight it is probably true. When the Central Government is doing all it can in making life miserable for the common man, it is difficult for the local party setup or even a well meaning young ‘prince’ to run the marathon and manage a final sprint.
No doubt it was in every voters mind that they would probably be hit with a petro-product price hike as soon as election results are out.
It is bad in both ways. That such a perspective has been allowed to grow - (1) the government doesn’t care for about prices and the perhaps cynical thought in their minds that a price hike is timed with election result; and (2) leaks about such a decision has been allowed to spread. The chief character of this UPA administration has been leaks galore.
If my family talks even leak out half as much as this government, I would be better off ‘passing water’ on my street, in the open, in full view of everyone of my neighbours, instead of using my bathroom.
:-D
Rahul Gandhi:
Rahul Gandhi has owned up responsibility for the loss in UP and has said that he has ‘learned his lessons’. I have my doubts. And it seems people do too. It is not that they do not trust him, but they still have to see him deliver.
His own party, despite what they say out in loud, I guess aren’t so impressed with his ability to deliver wins in elections. To be fair to him, he had chosen to start with the states where the Congress was in its abysmal depth - like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Perhaps a mark of a young man, who like a teenager, believes that he can change the world.
But realpolitik is an entirely different animal. It blesses people who deliver and has a bad tendency to throw by the wayside people who do not give them spectacular victories.
Now that the plan as envisaged by Mrs. Gandhi or even by him, of the man who built the party up doesn’t work, it is maybe time to switch strategies.
Time is short and my dinner is getting cold. To put it in short and sweet, if
- the Mrs. Gandhi’s ‘Kamaraj-Plan-2.0’, where party elders (or youngsters) act as wise men to the Government, doesn’t seem to work,
- a ‘Sashtri-Plan-for-Indira-rebooted’ - the Lal Bahadur Sashtri’s idea of inducting the original Mrs. Gandhi as a Minister - the way to go!
For now, I am really glad that no one, not one political party can question the veracity, reliability and genuineness of the Electronic Voting Machines.
Great Job Election Commission! Shalom!
No comments:
Post a Comment