After forecasting a normal monsoon for 2010 in April, predicting a normal onset over Kerala and being tripped when it hit Kerala earlier than predicted, one would have expected the authorities to be a little more cautious.
But no, they can’t. And the weather just toyed with these buggers. The monsoon paused as if to take stock, made them jumpy on June 18th, remained erratic over next week and was expected to revive by June end.
It did move further up, almost covering the whole country today, but has been erratic with a pause and revival forecast over next couple of weeks. And the whole country, including the bureaucratic bumbler, is depending upon it to cut inflation and the industry expects it to boost economy. God will tell !
But here is my take:
An abundant monsoon (excess) at least in TN and adjoining areas. My forecast relies on the fact that there was abundant flowering of Neem trees in Chennai and it was pointed out by a friend, who remarked that native knowledge is that plentiful Neem flowers equals plentiful rains.
Matter of fact, in Jan 2010, I was told something similar – that rice output for the ‘samba’ crop (rabi crop) would be meager The pointer was that the Indian blue grass had grown more than hip high – which means that the most paddy will be husks with little or no grain inside; hence it was useless to plant rice and most farmers kept off.
PS: Crop patterns in TN are a little different from the normal rabi/kharif of the rest of India. There are 3 patterns:
But no, they can’t. And the weather just toyed with these buggers. The monsoon paused as if to take stock, made them jumpy on June 18th, remained erratic over next week and was expected to revive by June end.
It did move further up, almost covering the whole country today, but has been erratic with a pause and revival forecast over next couple of weeks. And the whole country, including the bureaucratic bumbler, is depending upon it to cut inflation and the industry expects it to boost economy. God will tell !
But here is my take:
An abundant monsoon (excess) at least in TN and adjoining areas. My forecast relies on the fact that there was abundant flowering of Neem trees in Chennai and it was pointed out by a friend, who remarked that native knowledge is that plentiful Neem flowers equals plentiful rains.
Matter of fact, in Jan 2010, I was told something similar – that rice output for the ‘samba’ crop (rabi crop) would be meager The pointer was that the Indian blue grass had grown more than hip high – which means that the most paddy will be husks with little or no grain inside; hence it was useless to plant rice and most farmers kept off.
PS: Crop patterns in TN are a little different from the normal rabi/kharif of the rest of India. There are 3 patterns:
- Kuruvai ( the short term crop) - duration of 3-1/2 to 4 months from June/July to Oct/Nov;
- Thaladi - duration of 5 to 6 months Oct/Nov to Feb/March; and
- Samba (the long term crop) - duration of 6 months from Aug to January
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